by NASA officially improved the likelihood that the earth will be hit by Asteroid 2024 YR4.
The NASA Center for Near-Earth Studies or CNEOS now lists the likelihood of a collision in 2032 at 3.1 percent or about 1 to 32.
It went through a number of upgrades: the latest estimate had set it to 2.6 percent. At the end of January it was only 1 percent.
These changes are the result of more detailed observations that have made scientists possible to consider the possible trajectory of the asteroid considerably.
It is still almost certain that the asteroid will not occur, but this work has made scientists possible to create a possible impact risk corridor -which shows that more than 100 million people live in places that may be until 2024 Could be hit for years.
The NASA CNEOS still direct the asteroids as 3 on the Torino scale, which combines the probability of an effect with a danger that would cause. Although the scale up to 10, 2024 YR4, it means that it can only achieve eight – since 10 would be a global influence worldwide, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs.
Scientists have estimated the asteroid as a size 40-90 meters. This estimate is based on the brightness – and can therefore vary significantly, depending on how glossy the surface of the rock is, what astronomers try to train with more detailed observations.
The asteroid is currently flying away from the earth and is expected to disappear from the field of vision in April. This means that further observations are carried out in a hurry to ensure that scientists know as much about it as possible, since it can only examine again in 2028 – at this point it could be too late.
