by An asteroid that can flatten a medium -sized city Could possibly collide with the earth In eight years, the orbit around the sun will briefly cross the path of our planet. The Space Rock calls 2024 years Very slim probability of a striking country – either on earth or, even less likely, the moon – and the astronomers recently set the probability of a crash to 3.1%.
International space organizations like NASA take the possible threat seriously, however small it may be. Richard Moissl, the head of the planetary defense office of the European Space Authority, said her attention should not make the public excessively aware. He shared important facts about the asteroid with CBS News during the following conversation, which was dealt with out of clarity.
When would the asteroid hit the earth?
This asteroid deals every four years. Every time we walk around the sun four times, it has almost completed one round. In December 2024 it recently had a flyby, which means that the next Flyby is in December 2028, and we already know that this is not a problem.
The critical is in 2032, December 22nd, somewhere in the universal period around the middle of the day. Then the asteroid really goes through part of the Earth’s orbit. So it really goes through the path of the earth, so to speak.
And the question is whether the earth will be present at this time or whether it has already passed or is still approaching this point. The question is, where will it come over? There is an uncertainty region that currently extends over the entire earth monitoring system does not mean that we don’t know much about it. In fact, we know a lot about it.
Now we look at a moment on December 22, 2032, and it is about the question of breaks of a measuring device per second, which makes the difference.
There is about a 20-minute window in which the earth can be in the way before it is no longer on the path of the asteroid or the asteroid can no longer come into contact with the earth.
How is the asteroid risk managed?
Until recently, we carried out daily measurements with various telescopes. Then we had to pause a little for a day or two because the full moon and the object were too close to the full moon and the moon illuminates the sky to see it.
From now on we will not monitor it every day, but it is constantly monitored as possible with ever larger telescopes. And the idea is to measure its way to measure the sun in ever higher positions so that they shrink, shrink and shrink this region of uncertainty. And we try to restrict the uncertainty so much that we can say whether it can safely pass the earth or whether there is still a chance in mid -April.
What happens in April?
We will be removed so far from the object that we can no longer observe it from the earth. And then the James Webb telescope will carry out measurements. In March it actually takes one, especially infrared observations that give us more insight into the size of the object, and then another in May to carry out additional measurements. The most likely scenario is that at this point you can say that we can prove that it will not hit the earth, but it is possible that we cannot completely eliminate it. And that will be more interesting, because then we have to wait by mid -2028 if we can watch it again. We won’t let this time go without action.
When was the last time an asteroid had a similar probability to hit the earth?
This is only the second time that the effects of predictive systems have evaluated with a likelihood of more than 1%for asteroid. The last time was about 20 years ago With the Asteroid Apophis in 2004who reached a few percent for a short period of time before the uncertainty region could be restricted.
This shows how unusual 1% is, and that means that we as an expert have to take this seriously. Since the current probability is estimated at around 3%, it still takes around 97% that nothing bad will happen at all. So that has to be taken into account all the time. This is something that deserves attention, but it is not perceived as an impending threat. It is just, we have to learn more about it.
Have asteroids actually crashed against the earth?
We are aware of a current example in history in which this has happened. It was in Siberia in 1908. There was an event at which 2,000 square kilometers of forest had been flattened through a large explosion in the atmosphere. And this is very matching with a body with a diameter of about 50 meters and one or minus 10 meters, which enters the earth’s atmosphere.
So the body itself was probably not a solid piece of stone. It was more like what we call a bunch of smaller rock pieces. And this broke out several kilometers above the surface and had this effect that 2,000 square kilometers of forest were flattened, that seismic waves went out of it and could be discovered far away that people were also very far away from this event.
We don’t know if someone was injured in this accident. Nothing is reported. But the size, the footprint of destruction is comparable to a large urban area or a big city on earth. This is basically the scenario that we would expect from it.
Another example that was not recorded in the history of mankind was an object that was assumed that he had a diameter of about 50 meters, a massive railway that was the Barringer -Meteor crater in Arizona. It is a 1.2-kilometer crater. If you think about the reputation and think about it, if that would be done in a city, the city would look very, very different afterwards.
The estimated size of this asteroid is between 40 and 90 meters. Wouldn’t there be a big difference between the damage caused by just 40 meters and 90 meters?
Absolutely. I mean, the 40 to 90 meters are a standard estimate because we cannot know at this time what the surface brightness is. Current data indicate that you are more in the direction of the 40 or 50 meter size. Fortunately, I have given these popular examples of this in the area of smaller size.
But in fact the size is important for asteroids. Size is very important. When we talk about the doubling of the radius of an asteroid, this means eight times the mass, eight times the energy, and of course that is a significant difference. While it threatens around 40 meters at the lower end of the scale, a medium-sized city on the 90-meter edge, this could be comparable to the largest urban areas.
Why does the probability of 2024 years have been hit since it was discovered for the first time?
The good news is that this increase does not mean that the asteroid has become more dangerous. The path of the asteroid is defined by physical laws. It is already clear. It is only our knowledge of where this path is actually not yet perfect.
The percentage can be compared with the size of the uncertainty area, compared to the size of the earth. If you look at the fracture, the size of the earth – which is within the uncertainty area – is compared with the entire area of uncertainty where the asteroid could be in this critical time. This corresponded to about 1%when we achieved this threshold for international awareness.
Since then, the size of the uncertainty region has basically shrunk by half. Fortunately, the size of the earth remains the same. So this means that the earth is now twice as high as the space in the uncertainty region. And this means that our estimate for the effects of 1% has increased to 3%. It does not mean that something has changed.
Here, too, 3% is a 97% chance of the absence. So what will happen will continue to shrink with our knowledge, and the expected case is that we manage to reduce it so much that the earth is no longer in this region of uncertainty, and then the probability of effect Zero.
If this is closer to earth, it is quite possible that the probability of effectiveness will increase a little on a modest way. This is still not a cause of the alarm.
The asteroid was assigned a ranking of level 3 of 10 on the Turin -Impact -Hazard scale. How unusual is that?
It is the first time that an object on the Torino scale is officially classified as level 3. The only other object that was ever classified with a level higher than 1 was apophis. Due to its larger size, Apophis was classified as 4 on the Torino scale, which really only points out that it is a larger object. [Apophis has an estimated diameter of 350 meters, which is much larger than the asteroid 2024 YR4.]
What else should people know?
The most important thing is not panic. Always good advice, but it is definitely applicable in this situation. I think this gives us the opportunity to prove that as a planet we can still climb over the earth about things on earth that are between the countries between the countries. If we have exposed ourselves to a completely external threat, we can all come together, join together and confront this type of threats together.
This is a manageable challenge. Even if it would head to earth, which is by no means certain, 97% it is clear that it will miss us. So, not much to be afraid, but a good chance to show that we can be united on this planet.
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